Investors ask this question constantly, especially during periods of uncertainty. The short answer is this: we believe the current environment represents one of the most attractive acquisition windows in recent years, provided the strategy and execution are right.
Markets move in cycles. Opportunity does not disappear. It simply changes shape.
Market Cycles and Liquidity
As of December 1, 2025, the Federal Reserve officially ended quantitative tightening. In simple terms, the Fed is no longer actively pulling liquidity out of the economy. This matters because liquidity influences borrowing costs, investor confidence, and deal activity across asset classes.
When liquidity conditions improve, capital gradually becomes more available. Risk tolerance increases. Transaction volume tends to follow. While this does not mean an immediate return to easy money, it does signal that the most restrictive phase of policy is behind us.
Historically, periods like this often mark the transition from contraction toward stabilization and recovery.
Is Now a Good Time to Buy Real Estate?
The answer is yes, but only if the strategy matches the market.
Real estate success is not about perfectly timing the cycle. It is about understanding where we are and acting accordingly. Every phase of the cycle presents opportunity, just not the same kind.
When interest rates are high, competition falls. Motivated sellers become more flexible. Value creation through operations, repositioning, and structure becomes more important.
When interest rates are low, appreciation accelerates. Refinancing becomes a powerful tool. Capital markets reward scale and efficiency.
You do not need the perfect market. You need the right deal, the right operator, and enough time for fundamentals to work. Real estate remains one of the few asset classes where investors can actively improve outcomes through management, strategy, and discipline.
Why This Part of the Cycle Matters
We believe we are currently in a highly favorable acquisition phase.
Commercial real estate prices have increased for five consecutive months, signaling a broad stabilization trend. October marked continued recovery across multiple property types, with higher quality assets leading the way.
Since September, the Federal Reserve has implemented two interest rate cuts, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. Lower capital costs are already drawing investors back into the market, particularly institutional buyers with longer time horizons.
This return of disciplined capital is an important signal. Large investors tend to reenter markets when risk becomes more quantifiable and pricing aligns with fundamentals.
What the Data Is Telling Us
Several key indicators reinforce this view:
- Investment grade assets are leading the recovery. Large, high quality properties in major and secondary markets saw prices rise approximately 2 percent year over year in October. This reversed a three year decline. These assets accounted for roughly 60 percent of all deals over the past year, with October sales rising nearly 11 percent to $8.8 billion.
- Sales volume is increasing. Trailing twelve month transaction volume rose 27 percent year over year to $138.3 billion in October. Repeat sales climbed 16 percent to $13.5 billion, and overall monthly deal volume increased by 10 percent.
- Liquidity is improving. Average time on market fell to 173 days, indicating faster deal execution and growing buyer confidence.
Taken together, these signals suggest that many commercial asset classes are near what we would describe as maximum opportunity. In some markets, especially for high quality assets, recovery may already be underway.
A Disciplined View Forward
Office and multifamily pricing remain below their 2022 peaks, but the direction of travel is clear. Stabilizing prices, rising deal flow, and improving financing conditions point to a healthier transaction environment.
Institutional investors are returning. Liquidity is improving. Fundamentals are beginning to assert themselves again.
As Warren Buffett famously said,
“The fact that people will be full of greed, fear, or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable.”
At Oak Street Assets, we do not try to predict the exact sequence. We focus on discipline, structure, and fundamentals. This phase of the cycle rewards patient capital, conservative underwriting, and experienced operators who know how to create value regardless of headlines.
That is where we believe the real opportunity lies.
